Current inputs, assumptions and scenarios
AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. Confidential information is withheld from public release, but is incorporated in the modelling conducted, if necessary, to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.
AEMO completed its consultation on Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios (IASR) in July 2021, taking into consideration feedback provided on the Draft IASR published in December 2020, as well as from several stakeholder workshops and webinars. Details of the consultation can be accessed below.
2020-21 IASR consultation page
AEMO also consulted on its Draft Transmission Cost Report which, forms part of the 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report. Details of the consultation can be accessed below.
Transmission Cost Report Consultation
2020-21 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios
The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions currently applied in AEMO’s Forecasting and Planning activities.
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30/07/2021
2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report
This report contains the description of the 2021-22 inputs, assumptions and scenarios used in AEMO’s 2021-22 Forecasting and Planning publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM).
5.26 MB -
30/07/2021
2021 Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios Report Overview
This overview summarises the five scenarios within AEMO’s 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report.
588.61 KB -
30/07/2021
2021 IASR consultation summary report
This report outlines how AEMO has taken stakeholder feedback into account in developing the 2021 IASR.
2.03 MB -
30/07/2021
2021 Inputs and assumptions workbook
This spreadsheet contains key scenario data to be used as inputs in AEMO’s market models for 2021 Planning and Forecasting activities. This version contains the latest input data to be used for the 2022 ISP modelling
7.14 MB -
06/08/2021
2021 Transmission Cost Report
This report presents a summary of the design, capacity and cost estimate for candidate transmission projects in the 2022 ISP.
4.19 MB
Supporting materials for 2021 (including for the 2022 ISP)
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Reference materials
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27/08/2020
AEP Elical: Assessment of Ageing Coal-Fired Generation Reliability
1.4 MB -
30/07/2021
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020 - workbook
867.92 KB -
30/07/2021
Aurecon: Cost and Technical Parameters Review 2020
2.35 MB -
16/06/2021
BIS Oxford Economics 2021 Macroeconomic Projections Report
3.14 MB -
16/06/2021
CSIRO 2021 DER Forecasts Report
1.87 MB -
16/06/2021
CSIRO 2021 EV Forecasts Report
1.47 MB -
30/07/2021
CSIRO Multi-sector modelling
3.32 MB -
11/04/2019
Entura Report Pumped Hydro Cost Modelling
1.02 MB -
27/06/2016
Fuel and Technology Cost Review Report ACIL Allen
1.92 MB -
27/03/2020
2020 GSOO supply input data files
88.22 KB -
16/06/2021
GEM 2021 DER Forecasts Report
9.9 MB -
30/11/2018
GHD Report - Reference document provided as an action item of the October 2018 meeting
5.83 MB -
30/11/2018
GHD Data package - Reference document provided as an action item of the October 2018 meeting
565.98 KB -
30/07/2021
Indicative REZ boundaries 2021 - GIS data
51.85 KB -
18/12/2020
Lewis Grey Advisory: Gas Price Projections for the 2021 GSOO
517.76 KB -
11/12/2020
Transmission Cost Database Phase 1 Report
1.16 MB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities Gladstone Grid Reinforcement
1.45 MB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities QNI Medium and Large
1.23 MB -
30/07/2021
Powerlink Preparatory Activities CQSQ Transmission Link
878.91 KB -
30/07/2021
Strategy Policy Research: Energy Efficiency Forecasts 2021 – Final Report
9.44 MB -
30/07/2021
Synergies Discount Rate report
981.15 KB -
30/07/2021
Transmission Cost Database - GHD Report
4.64 MB -
30/07/2021
Transmission Cost Database Output Files
5.04 MB -
30/07/2021
Transmission Cost Database - User Manual
1.18 MB -
30/07/2021
Wood Mackenzie Coal Price Forecast
1.09 MB
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Other relevant input sources
Demand trace data
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2022 Draft demand trace data (subregional)
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14/09/2021
NSW CNSW sub-regional demand traces
246.61 MB -
14/09/2021
NSW NNSW sub-regional demand traces
242.62 MB -
14/09/2021
NSW SNSW sub-regional demand traces
246.95 MB -
14/09/2021
NSW SNW sub-regional demand traces
250.02 MB -
14/09/2021
QLD CNQ sub-regional demand traces
247.74 MB -
14/09/2021
QLD GG sub-regional demand traces
235.86 MB -
14/09/2021
QLD SQ sub-regional demand traces
250 MB -
14/09/2021
South Australia - regional demand traces
240.32 MB -
14/09/2021
Tasmania - regional demand traces
228.52 MB -
14/09/2021
Victoria - regional demand traces
242.56 MB
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2020 Demand trace data
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27/08/2020
NSW CENTRAL 2020 forecast
281.07 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
284.47 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW HIGH DER 2020 forecast
295.14 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
282.69 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
314.2 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD CENTRAL 2020 forecast
289.41 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
293.24 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD HIGH DER 2020 forecast
292.82 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
280.19 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
312.96 MB -
30/08/2020
SA CENTRAL 2020 forecast
282.43 MB -
30/08/2020
SA FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
284.62 MB -
30/08/2020
SA HIGH DER 2020 forecast
285.27 MB -
30/08/2020
SA SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
275.13 MB -
30/08/2020
SA STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
304.82 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS CENTRAL 2020 forecast
273.02 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS CFAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
275.63 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS HIGH DER 2020 forecast
276.93 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
267.8 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
299.02 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC CENTRAL 2020 forecast
292.76 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
296.35 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC HIGH DER 2020 forecast
296.5 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
283.55 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
315.95 MB
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2020 Inputs, assumptions and scenarios
2019-20 Inputs, assumptions and scenarios
The following documents detail the scenarios, inputs and assumptions used in Forecasting and Planning activities in 2019-20, notably the 2020 ISP.
Archive for inputs and assumptions workbook
Archive Supporting materials
Reference materials used to support the development of the inputs and assumptions.
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Supporting materials for 2021 (supporting NEM and WEM 2021 ESOO)
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Supporting materials for 2020 (supporting NEM and WEM 2020 ESOO)
Driver: Macroeconomic forecasts
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16/06/2020
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts
2.13 MB -
16/06/2020
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts - COVID-19 update
BIS Oxford Economics provided an updated range on the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, considering newer information available after the initial forecasts were finalised. AEMO’s forecasting considers both the original forecasts and the COVID-19 update.
744.12 KB
Driver: Forecasts of Distributed Energy Resources
Forced outage rate projection
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Supporting materials for 2020 (pre NEM 2020 ESOO)
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Other relevant input sources
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Archived supporting materials for 2019
Driver Report Databook CSIRO GenCost 2018
CSIRO, GenCost 2018: Updated projections of electricity generation technology costs (external link) GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review (5.83 MB, pdf)
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review databook (567 KB, xlsb)
Core Energy, 2019 Wholesale Gas Price Outlook
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook report (2.2 MB, pdf)
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook databook (5.8 MB, xlsx)