Current Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios
AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. Confidential information is withheld from public release, but is incorporated in the modelling conducted, if necessary, to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.
The documents on this page present the current final Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios. AEMO is currently consulting on the Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios that it proposes to use in its 2021-22 forecasting and planning activities. Details of the consultation can be accessed below.
Provide feedback on the consultation on Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios
2020-21 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios
For 2020-21 publications, AEMO continues to use the scenario narratives developed in 2019 for the 2020 ISP. Inputs used in the scenarios have been updated based on latest information.
The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions currently applied in AEMO’s Forecasting and Planning activities in 2020-21.
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31/08/2020
2020 forecasting and planning inputs, assumptions and scenarios report (IASR)
2.92 MB -
11/12/2020
2020 Inputs and assumptions workbook
This spreadsheet contains key scenario data used as inputs in AEMO’s market models for 2020 Planning and Forecasting activities. This data reflects a starting point for modelling, which may be refined as the processes evolve.
8.31 MB
2020 Demand trace data
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2020 Demand trace data
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27/08/2020
NSW CENTRAL 2020 forecast
281.07 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
284.47 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW HIGH DER 2020 forecast
295.14 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
282.69 MB -
27/08/2020
NSW STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
314.2 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD CENTRAL 2020 forecast
289.41 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
293.24 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD HIGH DER 2020 forecast
292.82 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
280.19 MB -
27/08/2020
QLD STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
312.96 MB -
30/08/2020
SA CENTRAL 2020 forecast
282.43 MB -
30/08/2020
SA FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
284.62 MB -
30/08/2020
SA HIGH DER 2020 forecast
285.27 MB -
30/08/2020
SA SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
275.13 MB -
30/08/2020
SA STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
304.82 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS CENTRAL 2020 forecast
273.02 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS CFAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
275.63 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS HIGH DER 2020 forecast
276.93 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
267.8 MB -
30/08/2020
TAS STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
299.02 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC CENTRAL 2020 forecast
292.76 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC FAST CHANGE 2020 forecast
296.35 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC HIGH DER 2020 forecast
296.5 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC SLOW CHANGE 2020 forecast
283.55 MB -
01/09/2020
VIC STEP CHANGE 2020 forecast
315.95 MB
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2019-20 Scenarios, inputs and assumptions
The following documents detail the scenarios, inputs and assumptions used in Forecasting and Planning activities in 2019-20, notably the 2020 ISP.
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16/08/2019
2019 forecasting and planning scenarios, inputs and assumptions report
The scenarios, inputs and assumptions are described in this report, following engagement from consumers and industry through the Planning and Forecasting Consultation. This included feedback provided directly at workshops, one-on-one discussions, and through formal submissions.
2.81 MB -
30/07/2020
2019 Input and Assumptions workbook
This spreadsheet contains key scenario data used as inputs in AEMO’s market models for 2019 Planning and Forecasting activities. This version 1.5 contains the latest input data used for the 2020 ISP modelling
9.75 MB
Archive for inputs and assumptions workbook
Supporting materials
Reference materials used to support the development of the inputs and assumptions.
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Current supporting materials for 2020 (supporting NEM and WEM 2020 ESOO)
Driver: Macroeconomic forecasts
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16/06/2020
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts
2.13 MB -
16/06/2020
BIS Oxford Economics, 2020 Macroeconomic forecasts - COVID-19 update
BIS Oxford Economics provided an updated range on the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, considering newer information available after the initial forecasts were finalised. AEMO’s forecasting considers both the original forecasts and the COVID-19 update.
744.12 KB
Driver: Forecasts of Distributed Energy Resources
Forced outage rate projection
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Current supporting materials for 2020 (pre NEM 2020 ESOO)
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Other relevant input sources
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Archived supporting materials for 2019
Driver Report Databook CSIRO GenCost 2018
CSIRO, GenCost 2018: Updated projections of electricity generation technology costs (external link) GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review (5.83 MB, pdf)
GHD, 2018 AEMO cost and technical parameter review databook (567 KB, xlsb)
Core Energy, 2019 Wholesale Gas Price Outlook
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook report (2.2 MB, pdf)
Core Energy, 2019 wholesale gas price outlook databook (5.8 MB, xlsx)