NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities

The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) provides technical and market data that informs the decision-making processes of market participants, new investors, and jurisdictional bodies as they assess opportunities in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over a 10-year outlook period.

The NEM ESOO incorporates a reliability assessment against the reliability standard defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER) clause 3.9.3C and AEMO’s Reliability Forecast under the Retailer Reliability Obligations (RRO).

• The Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (559 KB, pdf) describes how AEMO implements the reliability standard across its reliability processes, including the approach and assumptions in relation to the ESOO.
• AEMO’s 2019 Reliability Forecasting Methodology Paper (509 KB, pdf) presents the methodology used in developing the Reliability Forecast in the ESOO specifically.

2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities in development

The development of the 2020 ESOO and associated reliability forecast has started with inputs and assumptions being prepared. As part of that, AEMO is:

• Requesting information from Registered Participants in accordance with NER clause 3.13.3A(d). The information requested is listed in AEMO’s Standing Information Request for 2020 in line with the process outlined in the Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines. 

• Seeking stakeholder submissions on inputs and assumptions for AEMO’s 2020 forecasting and planning publications, including
  • Changes required to key inputs and assumptions used in AEMO’s 2019 NEM planning and forecasting publications that affect AEMO’s supply and demand forecasting models.
  • CSIRO’s latest 2019-20 GenCost draft which provides an annual update to generation technology costs.

For further details, and to engage with AEMO during this Consultation, please visit the 2020 Planning and Forecasting Consultation on scenarios, inputs and assumptions.

2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities

The 2019 ESOO presents AEMO’s outlook of supply adequacy to 2028–29 under a number of scenarios and sensitivities.

The 2019 ESOO was prepared by AEMO using information available at 8 August 2019. Information made available after this date may have been included in this publication where practical.

• 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (3.8 MB, pdf)

2019 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities – results

To view reliability outcomes by region, see:

• 2019 ESOO Results – NSW  (47 KB, xls)
• 2019 ESOO Results – QLD  (46 KB, xls)
• 2019 ESOO Results – SA   (48 KB, xls)
• 2019 ESOO Results – TAS (46 KB, xls)
• 2019 ESOO Results – VIC (47 KB, xls)

To view demand forecasts by region, see:

• AEMO's forecasting data portal
  • Guide to using the AEMO Forecasting data portal (910 KB, pdf)
  • AEMO's Forecasting demand definitions (167 KB, pdf)

2019 NEM ESOO Supporting Material

For the purpose of the National Electricity Rules Clause 3.13.3A(a), in addition to the ESOO and accompanying documents published on this page, the following information should be considered part of the 2019 ESOO:

• AEMO’s Generation Information Page – 8 August 2019 update (direct download 813 KB, xls).
• The 2019 Inputs and Assumptions workbook (24.7 MB, xls). Note that the 2019 Inputs and Assumptions Workbook contains data not applied to the ESOO, incorporating future potential developments appropriate to the Integrated System Plan or other Forecasting and Planning analyses.
• A memo – Generator Outage Analysis for 2019 ESOO v2 (200 KB, pdf) explaining the reasoning behind the probabilities of delayed return to service of the current long term outages that were used in the 2019 NEM ESOO.

In addition, the following reports describe key inputs into the demand forecasting process.

Additional inputs, assumptions and methodologies across AEMO’s Planning and Forecasting functions are available at:

• Scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies for Planning and Forecasting

2019 NEM ESOO Methodology

• Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper (2.1 MB, pdf)
• ESOO Methodology document  (443 KB, pdf)
• Demand Side Participation forecast and methodology  (443 KB, pdf)

2019 NEM ESOO Model

• 2019 NEM ESOO Model and Data Set Instructions (652 KB, pdf)