2021 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities

The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) provides technical and market data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) over a 10-year period to inform the planning and decision-making of market participants, new investors, and jurisdictional bodies.

The NEM ESOO incorporates a reliability assessment against the reliability standard defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER) clause 3.9.3C and AEMO’s Reliability Forecast under the Retailer Reliability Obligations (RRO).

The Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines describe how AEMO implements the reliability standard across its reliability processes, including the approach and assumptions in relation to the ESOO.

April 2022 Update to the 2021 ESOO

Significant new information of relevance has become available since AEMO’s release of the 2021 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), published in August 2021, including the announcement by Origin Energy for the potential early retirement of Eraring Power Station in August 2025 and announcements by AGL Energy in respect of the Bayswater Power Station. This Update to the 2021 ESOO provides an updated reliability forecast, and information about proposed generating units and network developments for which formal commitments have not yet been made.

The Reliability Forecast

The implementation of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO) was agreed at the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Energy Council meeting on 26 October 2018. The necessary legislative and National Electricity Rules (NER) changes took effect on 1 July 2019.

A key component of the RRO is the calculation of a five-year reliability forecast and five-year indicative reliability forecast for each NEM region, to be published in the ESOO. If the reliability forecast identifies a material reliability gap three years ahead, AEMO will submit a reliability instrument request to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER).

The Reliability Forecast Guidelines will apply for the reliability forecast produced as part of the 2020 ESOO. Final Reliability Forecast Guidelines are to be published by 28 February 2021 as per NER clause 11.116.4(c).

The ESOO and Reliability Forecast methodology document explains the types of inputs and key methodologies used to calculate expected USE outcomes and details how the reliability gap period and reliability gap are determined.

2021 Electricity Statement of Opportunities

The 2021 ESOO presents AEMO’s outlook of supply adequacy to 2030–31. A key focus of this year’s ESOO is on managing an accelerated transition towards high instantaneous penetration of renewable generation, thermal generation withdrawal, and ‘green’ hydrogen consumption.

To view reliability outcomes by region, see:

To view demand forecasts by region, see:

2021 ESOO inputs and assumptions

For the purpose of the National Electricity Rules Clause 3.13.3A(a), in addition to the ESOO and accompanying documents published on this page, the following information should be considered part of the 2021 ESOO:

Note that the 2021 Inputs and Assumptions Report and Workbook contains information not necessarily applied in the ESOO, incorporating other data appropriate to the Integrated System Plan or other Forecasting and Planning work.  Refer Section 1.1 of the 2021 ESOO for what sections of the 2021 IASR apply to the ESOO for reliability Forecast purposes.

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