2019 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities
The 2019 ESOO presents AEMO’s outlook of supply adequacy to 2028–29 under a
number of scenarios and sensitivities.
The 2019 ESOO was prepared by AEMO using information available at 8 August 2019. Information made available after this date may have been included in this publication where practical.
- 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (3.8 MB, pdf)
2019 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities – results
To view reliability outcomes by region, see:
- 2019 ESOO Results – NSW (47 KB, xls)
- 2019 ESOO Results – QLD (46 KB, xls)
- 2019 ESOO Results – SA (48 KB, xls)
- 2019 ESOO Results – TAS (46 KB, xls)
- 2019 ESOO Results – VIC (47 KB, xls)
To view demand forecasts by region, see:
-
AEMO's forecasting data portal
- Guide to using the AEMO Forecasting data portal (910 KB, pdf)
- AEMO's Forecasting demand definitions (167 KB, pdf)
2019 NEM ESOO Supporting Material
For the purpose of the National Electricity Rules Clause 3.13.3A(a), in addition to the ESOO and accompanying documents published on this page, the following information should be considered part of the 2019 ESOO:
- AEMO’s Generation Information Page – 8 August 2019 update (direct download 813 KB, xls).
- The 2019 Inputs and Assumptions workbook (24.7 MB, xls). Note that the 2019 Inputs and Assumptions Workbook contains data not applied to the ESOO, incorporating future potential developments appropriate to the Integrated System Plan or other Forecasting and Planning analyses.
- A memo – Generator Outage Analysis for 2019 ESOO v2 (200 KB, pdf) explaining the reasoning behind the probabilities of delayed return to service of the current long term outages that were used in the 2019 NEM ESOO.
In addition, the following reports describe key inputs into the demand forecasting process.
Report: |
Link: |
Deloitte Access Economics, 2019 AEMO Long term economic scenario forecasts |
Deloitte Access Economics, 2019 AEMO Long term economic scenario forecasts (5.83 MB, pdf) |
CSIRO, 2019 Projections for Small Scale Embedded Technologies Report |
2019 Projections for Small Scale Embedded Technologies Report by CSIRO (1.9 MB, pdf) |
Energeia, Distributed Energy Resources and Electric Vehicle Forecasts Report |
Distributed Energy Resources and Electric Vehicle Forecasts - Report by Energeia (2.33 MB, pdf) |
Strategy Policy Research, 2019 Energy Efficiency Forecasts |
Strategy Policy Research, 2019 Energy Efficiency Forecasts (5.2 MB, pdf) |
Additional inputs, assumptions and methodologies across AEMO’s Planning and Forecasting functions are available at:
- Scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies for Planning and Forecasting
2019 NEM ESOO Methodology
- Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper (2.1 MB, pdf)
- ESOO Methodology document (443 KB, pdf)
- Demand Side Participation forecast and methodology (443 KB, pdf)
2019 NEM ESOO Model
- 2019 NEM ESOO Model and Data Set Instructions (652 KB, pdf)
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21/08/2019
2019 Constraint Ratings
120.98 MB -
21/08/2019
2019 ESOO Model
9.76 MB -
21/08/2019
2019 OPSO
406.95 MB -
21/08/2019
2019 OPSO_PVLITE
405.02 MB -
21/08/2019
2019 PV_TOT
225.66 MB -
21/08/2019
2019 Solar Traces
148.75 MB -
21/08/2019
2019 Wind Traces
356.41 MB -
23/08/2018
2018 REZ Wind Traces
260.49 MB -
23/08/2018
2018 Wind Traces
186.83 MB -
23/08/2018
2018 Zonal Solar Traces
64.88 MB