Victoria

Purpose

AEMO has prepared this page to provide information about its transmission connection point forecasts for Victoria.

AEMO publishes these connection point forecasts in line with clause 5.20.6(b) of the National Electricity Rules, as part of its national transmission planner (NTP) functions.

  • Disclaimer

    AEMO has made every reasonable effort to ensure the quality of the information in this publication but cannot guarantee that information, forecasts and assumptions are accurate, complete or appropriate for your circumstances. This publication does not include all of the information that an investor, participant or potential participant in the National Electricity Market might require, and does not amount to a recommendation of any investment.

    Anyone proposing to use the information in this publication (including information and reports from third parties) should independently verify and check its accuracy, completeness and suitability for purpose, and obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts.

    Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, AEMO and its officers, employees and consultants involved in the preparation of this publication:

    • make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this publication; and
    • are not liable (whether by reason of negligence or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or other matters contained in or derived from this document, or any omissions from it, or in respect of a person’s use of the information in this publication.

Published: November 2019

Please note: these forecasts are based on information available to AEMO as at 25 June 2019, although AEMO has endeavoured to incorporate more recent information where practical.

This page uses many terms that have meanings defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER). The NER meanings are adopted unless otherwise specified. Other key terms used are listed in the Glossary of the AEMO Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016.

Acknowledgement

AEMO acknowledges, in alphabetical order, AusNet Services, Citipower, Jemena, Powercor and United Energy, for their support, co-operation, and contribution in providing data and information used in these forecasts.

Background

The forecasts are reconciled to AEMO's 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, which incorporates the effects of demand due to forecast population growth, economic and demographic outlook, electricity prices, energy efficiency and performance, and small-scale embedded technologies.

2019 connection point results and insights

Refer to the Dynamic interface (8.96 MB, xls) for detailed information on individual connection points. 

Figures 1 and 2 show the summer and winter change rates based on the compound average rate of changes over the 10-year forecasting period in Victoria. Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.

Figure 1: VIC 10% POE summer 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019-20 to 2028-29
Figure 1 POE summer 10 year average annual growth rates 

Figure 2: VIC 10% POE winter 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019 to 2028
Figure 2 POE winter 10 year average annual growth rates 

 

Table 1 lists the drivers of large changes (2% or greater) in connection points. Major industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality. 

Table 1: Drivers at connection points with change rates increasing (decreasing) more than 2%
Season Forecast maximum demand increase greater than 2% Forecast maximum demand decrease greater than 2%
Summer

Brunswick (CitiPower) 66 kV: Expected block loads received from West Melbourne 66 kV, West Melbourne 22 kV in 2021, and Richmond 66 kV in 2022.

Deer Park (Powercor) 66 kV:
Expected future block load received from Altona West 66kV in 2020 and 2021 as well as new local commercial/industrial loads.

Cranbourne (AusNet) 66 kV:
Expected local developments.  

Fishermans Bend (CitiPower) 66 kV: 
Expected new commercial loads.

 

West Melbourne (CitiPower) 22 kV: The load will gradually transfer to Brunswick 66 kV and West Melbourne 66 kV over the next three years, leading to a substantial negative growth and expected closure in 2024.  

Richmond 34 (CitiPower) 66 kV:
Expected block load transfer to Brunswick 66 kV in 2022.

Brunswick (CitiPower) 22kV:
Expected load transfer to West Melbourne 66 kV in 2021.

Richmond (CitiPower) 22kV:
Expected load transfer to Richmond 66 kV in 2021 and load reduction following completion of the Metro Rail tunnel in 2024.

Winter Brunswick (CitiPower) 66 kV: Expected block loads received from West Melbourne 66 kV, West Melbourne 22 kV in 2021, and Richmond 66 kV in 2022.

Deer Park (Powercor) 66 kV: Expected future block load received from Altona West 66kV in 2020 and 2021 as well as new local commercial/industrial loads.

Cranbourne (AusNet) 66 kV: Expected local developments.  

Fishermans Bend (CitiPower) 66 kV:  Expected new commercial loads.        
West Melbourne (CitiPower) 22 kV: The load will gradually transfer to Brunswick 66 kV and West Melbourne 66 kV over the next three years, leading to a substantial negative growth and expected closure in 2024.  

Richmond 34 (CitiPower) 66 kV: Expected block load transfer to Brunswick 66 kV in 2022.

Brunswick (CitiPower) 22kV: Expected load transfer to West Melbourne 66 kV in 2021.

Richmond (CitiPower) 22kV: Expected load transfer to Richmond 66 kV in 2021 and load reduction following completion of the Metro Rail tunnel in 2024.
 

Supplementary information

 

Dynamic interface An Excel workbook with the following information for each transmission connection point:
  • Historical and forecast maximum demand (MD), including 10% POE and 50% POE, for active power.
  • Coincident and non-coincident values.
  • High-level commentary.
  • The option to export all forecast and historical data.
Reactive power system forecast spreadsheet

Separate spreadsheet for reactive power forecasts at each transmission connection point, providing complementary information for power system studies.

Please note the current reactive power forecasting methodology is based off historical power factors at time of connection point maximum demand, and does not yet take into account a potential change in future power factors as a result of increased PV generation penetration. AEMO hopes to expand on this methodology in the future. 

Interactive planning map The interactive map complements AEMO’s planning publications to enhance readability and clarity. The map contains various layers, including layers displaying forecasts and planning information.
Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016 The current AEMO transmission connection point forecasting methodology outlines the process through which the forecasts were developed.


Archive of Previous Victoria Forecasts and Reports


2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
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