AEMO has prepared this page to provide information about its transmission connection point forecasts for South Australia.
AEMO publishes these connection point forecasts in line with clause 5.20.6(b) of the National Electricity Rules, as part of its national transmission planner (NTP) functions.Disclaimer
AEMO has made every reasonable effort to ensure the quality of the information in this publication but cannot guarantee that information, forecasts and assumptions are accurate, complete or appropriate for your circumstances. This publication does not include all of the information that an investor, participant or potential participant in the National Electricity Market might require, and does not amount to a recommendation of any investment.
Anyone proposing to use the information in this publication (including information and reports from third parties) should independently verify and check its accuracy, completeness and suitability for purpose, and obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts.
Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, AEMO and its officers, employees and consultants involved in the preparation of this publication:
Published: September 2019
Please note: these forecasts are based on information available to AEMO as at 12 September 2019, although AEMO has endeavoured to incorporate more recent information where practical.
This page uses many terms that have meanings defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER). The NER meanings are adopted unless otherwise specified. Other key terms used are listed in the Glossary of the AEMO Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016.
AEMO acknowledges SA Power Networks' support, co-operation, and contribution in providing data and information used in these forecasts.
The forecasts are reconciled to AEMO’s 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, which incorporates the effects on demand of forecast population growth, increases in electricity prices, fuel switching, appliance usage, manufacturing, rooftop photovoltaic (PV), energy storage systems, electric vehicles and energy efficiency in appliances and buildings.
2019 connection point results and insights
Refer to the dynamic interface for detailed information on individual connection points.
Figures 1 and 2 show the summer and winter change rates for 10% POE forecasts for each connection point in South Australia. Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.
Figure 1: South Australia 10% POE summer 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019-20 to 2028-29
Figure 2: South Australia 10% POE winter 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019 to 2028
Table 1 lists the drivers of large changes (2% or greater, set to capture extreme rates) in connection points . Major industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.
Table 1: Drivers at connection points with average annual increase or decrease greater than 2%
|Season||Forecast maximum demand increase greater than 2%||Forecast maximum demand decrease greater than 2%|
|Summer maximum demand||
|Winter maximum demand||Mobilong: Due to recent growth in underlying demand||
* 2% is set to capture extreme rates. Major industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.
|Dynamic interface||An Excel workbook with the following information for each transmission connection point:
|Reactive power forecast spreadsheet||
Separate spreadsheet for reactive power forecasts at each transmission connection point, providing complementary information for power system studies.
Please note the current reactive power forecasting methodology is based off historical power factors at time of connection point maximum demand, and does not yet take into account a potential change in future power factors as a result of increased PV generation penetration. AEMO hopes to expand on this methodology in the future.
|Interactive planning map||The interactive map complements AEMO’s planning publications to enhance readability and clarity. The map contains various layers, including layers displaying forecasts and planning information.|
|Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016||The current AEMO transmission connection point forecasting methodology outlines the process through which the forecasts were developed.|