New South Wales, including the Australian Capital Territory

Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for New South Wales, including the Australian Capital Territory

Purpose

AEMO has prepared this page to provide information about its transmission connection point forecasts for New South Wales, including the Australian Capital Territory.

AEMO publishes these connection point forecasts in line with clause 5.20.6(b) of the National Electricity Rules, as part of its national transmission planner (NTP) functions.

Disclaimer

AEMO has made every reasonable effort to ensure the quality of the information in this publication but cannot guarantee that information, forecasts and assumptions are accurate, complete or appropriate for your circumstances. This publication does not include all of the information that an investor, participant or potential participant in the National Electricity Market might require, and does not amount to a recommendation of any investment.

Anyone proposing to use the information in this publication (including information and reports from third parties) should independently verify and check its accuracy, completeness and suitability for purpose, and obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts.

Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, AEMO and its officers, employees and consultants involved in the preparation of this publication:            

  • make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this publication; and
  • are not liable (whether by reason of negligence or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or other matters contained in or derived from this document, or any omissions from it, or in respect of a person’s use of the information in this publication.

Acknowledgement

AEMO acknowledges, in alphabetical order, Ausgrid, Endeavour Energy, Essential Energy and Evoenergy, for their support, co-operation, and contribution in providing data and information used in these forecasts.

Published: October 2019

Please note: these forecasts are based on information available to AEMO as at 30 August 2019, although AEMO has endeavoured to incorporate more recent information where practical.

This page uses many terms that have meanings defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER). The NER meanings are adopted unless otherwise specified. Other key terms used are listed in the Glossary of the AEMO Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016.

Background

The forecasts are reconciled to AEMO's 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, which incorporates the effects of demand due to forecast population growth, economic and demographic outlook, electricity prices, energy efficiency and performance, and small-scale embedded technologies.

2019 connection point results and insights

Refer to the dynamic interface in the Supplementary Information section below, for detailed information on individual connection points. 

Figures 1 and 2 show the summer and winter growth rates based on the compound average rate of changes over the 10-year forecasting period in New South Wales. Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.

Figure 1: New South Wales 10% POE summer 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019-20 to 2028-29
Figure 1: New South Wales 10% POE summer 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019-20 to 2028-29 
Figure 2: New South Wales 10% POE winter 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019 to 2028

Figure 2: New South Wales 10% POE winter 10-year average annual growth rates, 2019 to 2028

Table 1: Drivers at connection points with average annual increasing (decreasing) more than 2% 

Table 1 lists the drivers of large changes (2% or greater) in connection points. Major industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.

Season Forecast maximum demand increase greater than 2% Forecast maximum demand decrease greater than 2%
Summer maximum demand

Ilford: Expected future block load increases in demand, due to increases in industrial mining activities.

Queanbeyan (Essential Energy) 132 kV: Expected increasing residential demand over the last four years is expected to continue.

Gilmore: Expected increases in commercial/industrial load in summer of 2020 will increase the maximum demand forecast.

Gold Creek: The increasing historical demand trend observed over the last eight years is expected to continue due to the increase in residential developments.

Murrumbateman: The increasing historical maximum demand trend observed over the last five years is expected to continue.

Western Sydney:  The increasing historical demand trend observed over the last four years is expected to continue with an increase in population growth.

Snowy Adit: Declining demand is indicated by the trend over the last three years.

Winter maximum demand

Ilford: Expected future block load increases in demand, due to increases in industrial mining activities.

Queanbeyan (Essential Energy) 132 kV: Expected increasing residential developments will increase the maximum demand forecast for the connection point.

Gilmore: Expected future block load to meet future commercial/industrial load in summer of 2020 will increase the maximum demand forecast.

Gold Creek: The increasing historical demand trend observed over the last five years is expected to continue due to the increase in residential developments. 

Griffith: Future block loads for 2020 and in 2021 representing increasing industrial/agricultural industry demand.

 

* 2% is set to capture extreme rates. Major industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality. 

Supplementary information

Dynamic interface 
(9.16 MB, pdf)
An Excel workbook with the following information for each transmission connection point:
  • Historical and forecast maximum demand (MD), including 10% POE and 50% POE, for active power.
  • Coincident and non-coincident values.
  • High-level commentary.
  • The option to export all forecast and historical data.
Reactive power system forecast
(743 KB, pdf)

Separate spreadsheet for reactive power forecasts at each transmission connection point, providing complementary information for power system studies.

Please note the current reactive power forecasting methodology is based off historical power factors at time of connection point maximum demand, and does not yet take into account a potential change in future power factors as a result of increased PV generation penetration. AEMO hopes to expand on this methodology in the future. 

Interactive planning map The interactive map complements AEMO’s planning publications to enhance readability and clarity. The map contains various layers, including layers displaying forecasts and planning information.
Transmission Connection Point Forecasting Methodology 2016 The current AEMO transmission connection point forecasting methodology outlines the process through which the forecasts were developed.

Archive of previous New South Wales, including the Australian Capital Territory forecasts and reports

2017 2016 2015 2014
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