- Total business delivered consumption is forecast to be relatively flat, with an annual increase of 0.4% in the short term (to 2021–22) followed by an average annual increase of 0.5% over the medium to long term (out to 2036–37).
- Short term: Forecast growth in consumption is predominantly related to increasing electricity consumption by Coal Seam Gas (CSG) production to supply gas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains. Consumption is forecast to grow by 7.1% with increasing supplies of gas for APLNG’s second train which started commissioning in October 2016.
- Medium to long term: AEMO projects consumption by the Manufacturing sector to grow 0.1% per annum, on average, driven by expected growth in gross state product (GSP). Coal sector consumption is forecast to decrease by 0.3% per annum, on average, as existing mines are expected to reach end of life. CSG sector consumption is forecast to grow at 0.5% per annum, on average, and consumption by the Other business sector is forecast to grow 0.7% per annum, on average, as projected population and household disposable income grows. The Other business sector, comprising industries such as education, financial services, IT, infrastructure, and health and aged care, contributes 73% of forecast consumption growth in this period, with the rest from Manufacturing.
- By 2036–37, the Strong scenario projects delivered consumption 21,794 GWh higher than in the Neutral scenario, driven by higher projections in growth drivers such as GSP, household disposable income, and population growth.
- In the Weak scenario, forecast consumption by 2036–37 is 36,432 GWh lower than in the Neutral scenario.
- An expected uplift in commodity prices, and the expected return of the exchange rate to long-term average, is expected to improve the long-term outlook for heavy, export-oriented, energy-intensive manufacturers.
Key component insights
- In 2014-2015, Manufacturing made up 41% of total business electricity consumption (down from over 60% in the 1970s), with Coal consuming 4%, and Other business and CSG making up the remaining 55%.
- As the comparison between Figure A and Figure B (below) shows, over the 20-year forecast period, Manufacturing and Coal mining’s combined share in the Neutral scenario is projected to decline by approximately 5%, with Other business growing by 3.6% and CSG by 1.4%.
- In the Weak scenario, Manufacturing’s share is projected to decline by 16% to 2036–37. In the Strong scenario, Manufacturing sector consumption is forecast to increase its share of total consumption by 2%.
Notable regional drivers and forecasts and additional detail are in these key component pages: