Interim reliability forecast guidelines consultation

Market National Electricity Market
StageFinal Report
ConvenorAEMO NEM
Accepting submissions?No

Reliability forecasts are a critical input to triggering obligations under the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO), introduced on 1 July 2019. AEMO is required to consult on and publish Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines by 31 December 2019 in accordance with the National Electricity Rules (NER) clause 11.116.4(a).

These Interim Guidelines will apply for the reliability forecast produced as part of the 2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO). Final Reliability Forecast Guidelines are to be published by 28 February 2021 as per NER clause 11.116.4(c).

On 3 October, AEMO published its Draft Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines invited written submissions from interested stakeholders, as detailed in the Consultation Timeline below.

An Industry Workshop was held on 17 October to discuss the Interim Guidelines with interested parties.

Consultation timeline

Stage  Indicative date  Status 
Draft Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines published for consultation
Thursday 3 October 2019
Industry workshop
Thursday 17 October 2019
Consultation submissions due
Thursday 31 October 2019
Consultation determination published
Thursday 28 November 2019
Interim reliability forecast guidelines published
Thursday 19 December 2019

Final Determination

On Thursday 19 December, AEMO published its Final Report and accompanying Interim Reliability Forecasting Guidelines.

The Final Report represents AEMO’s response to the submissions. Alongside this, AEMO has published its amended Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines.
It also published an updated ESOO and Reliability Forecast Methodology document, which is the previous ESOO methodology document with the reliability forecast details included as a separate section.

For all purposes the published Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines and documents referred to within replace the Reliability Forecasting Methodology paper previously consulted on prior to introduction of RRO. 

Industry workshop

AEMO held a stakeholder workshop 17 October 2019 to brief stakeholders on AEMO's considerations behind the Draft Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines and allow stakeholders to seek additional clarity around the points raised in the consultation paper before making their submissions.

The slide pack from the workshop is available here:

Draft interim guidelines and consultation paper

On 3 October 2019, AEMO started the consultation on the Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines.

The draft Interim Reliability Forecast guidelines are available at: 

To guide feedback and highlight key aspects of the guidelines a Consultation Paper was also published:


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