2025 Forecast Improvement Plan consultation

Timeline

Key contact

Email: [email protected]

Matter under consultation

AEMO publishes a range of forecasting and planning reports for the National Electricity Market (NEM). Under NER 3.13.3A(h), AEMO must annually report on the accuracy of its demand and supply forecasts, as well as any material inputs to reliability forecasts. It must also outline improvements for the next Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) to support ongoing forecast accuracy.

To meet this requirement, AEMO has prepared the 2025 Forecast Accuracy Report, assessing demand and supply forecast accuracy from the 2024 ESOO across all NEM regions.

This consultation focuses on proposed improvements to reliability and demand forecasts included in the Draft 2025 Forecast Improvement Plan (see Section 8 of the 2025 Forecast Accuracy Report). It provides transparency and stakeholder engagement in line with the Australian Energy Regulator’s  Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines (FBPG), using the consultation process in Appendix B of the FBPG.

The Forecast Improvement Plan offers a structured framework to guide investigations and enhance AEMO’s forecasting approach. The Draft 2025 Forecast Improvement Plan responds to two key drivers:

• Forecast accuracy findings from the 2024 ESOO, where specific gaps were identified.
• Structural changes in the power system, reshaping reliability and demand risks and requiring ESOO forecasts to evolve.

Based on these drivers, AEMO proposes a series of improvements and investigations, forming the draft 2025 Forecast Improvement Plan for consultation in Section 8 of the 2025 Forecast Accuracy Report.

After reviewing the feedback from the written submissions, AEMO has determined to finalise the 2025 Forecast Improvement Plan as published in Section 8 of the 2025 Forecast Accuracy Report, incorporating additional changes in responses to the submissions, as outlined in Section 5 of 2025 Forecast Improvement Plan Consultation Final Report.

Publication

All submissions will be published on AEMO’s website, other than confidential content.