The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) today published an update to the 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the 10-year reliability outlook for the National Electricity Market (NEM).
The update was triggered by material changes to the retirement dates for two power stations, which affect the 2025 ESOO reliability forecasts released in August.
This includes the delayed retirement of three units at the Torrens Island B Power Station (600 megawatts) in South Australia from 1 July 2026 to 1 July 2028, and the earlier potential closure of the Gladstone Power Station (1,680 MW) in Queensland from 2035 to 31 March 2029.
Today’s NEM ESOO Update shows that the previously forecast reliability gap for South Australia under the ‘Committed and Anticipated Developments’ outlook in 2026-27 is no longer expected.
As a result, AEMO will not request the Australian Energy Regulator to consider imposing an obligation on retailers and liable entities to enter sufficient contracts through the retailer reliability obligation (RRO) for South Australia in 2026-27.
While forecast reliability gaps emerge in Queensland from 2029-30 due to the earlier closure notification from CS Energy for the Gladstone Power Station, no RRO instruments apply at this stage as a result of this update.
AEMO Executive General Manager System Design, Nicola Falcon, said: “The delayed retirement of AGL’s Torrens Island B power station has improved the short-term reliability outlook in South Australia.”
“Bringing forward the Gladstone Power Station’s retirement by six years flags the need for the timely delivery of planned longer-term investment.
“More broadly across the National Electricity Market, the delivery of new generation, storage and transmission, along with the operation of consumer energy resources to support reliability, remain critical with considerable power station retirements and increasing demand forecasts,” she said.
The update to the 2025 ESOO is available on AEMO’s website.
ENDS