Forecast accuracy report methodology

14/07/2020
Market National Electricity Market
StageSecond Stage
ConvenorAEMO NEM
Initiated29/04/2020
Accepting submissions?Yes
Submissions close11/08/2020

AEMO welcomes your input into the consultation on the Forecast Accuracy Report Methodology. This formal consultation is being conducted under the AER Interim Reliability Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines, and AEMOs Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines.

The Consultation Process

The consultation process is outlined below.  Dates are indicative only and subject to change.

Process Stage Indicative date
Closing date for submissions in response to this Notice
3 June 2020
Publication of Draft Report and Determination
14 July 2020
 Closing date for submissions in response to the Draft Report  11 August 2020
 Publication of Final Report and Determination  25 August 2020

Invitation to Make Submissions

AEMO invites written submissions on the matter under consultation, including any alternative or additional proposals you consider may better meet the objectives of this consultation and the national electricity objective in section 7 of the National Electricity Law.  

AEMO has newly developed the Forecasting Accuracy Report Methodology and is seeking feedback on the following questions:

  • Are the demand adjustments outlined in this report reasonable for estimating demand without load shedding and DSP?
  • Is the FAR methodology outlined in this report reasonable, and does it focus on the areas that will deliver the greatest insights for forecast accuracy?
  • If not, what alternative or additional metrics, visualisations or processes should be considered in the methodology?
  • Is there anything else AEMO should consider when evaluating its choice of accuracy metrics?

Please identify any parts of your submission that you wish to remain confidential, and explain why.  AEMO may still publish that information if it does not consider it to be confidential, but will consult with you before doing so. 

Please note that material identified as confidential may be given less weight in the decision-making process than material that is published. 

Closing Date and Time

Submissions in response to this Notice of Consultation should be sent by email to energy.forecasting@aemo.com.au, to reach AEMO by 5.00pm (Melbourne time) on 11 August 2020.

All submissions must be forwarded in electronic format (both pdf and Word).  Please send any queries about this consultation to the same email address. 

Submissions received after the closing date and time will not be valid, and AEMO is not obliged to consider them.  Any late submissions should explain the reason for lateness and the detriment to you if AEMO does not consider your submission.

Publication

All submissions will be published on AEMO’s website, other than confidential content. 

 
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