AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM), including the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP). AEMO has prepared a Consultation Paper to provide information and seek stakeholder submissions on inputs and assumptions for AEMO’s 2020 forecasting and planning publications, including but not limited to feedback on:
- Changes required to key inputs and assumptions used in AEMO’s 2019 NEM planning and forecasting publications that affect AEMO’s supply and demand forecasting models,
- CSIRO’s latest 2019-20 GenCost draft which provides an annual update to generation technology costs.
- New gas price forecasts prepared by Core Energy, December 2019.
AEMO is committed to continually improve its forecast accuracy to better meet stakeholder needs. AEMO respects the expertise of its stakeholders and values all feedback, which is critical in guiding meaningful progress and developing a strategic vision for the future development of Australia’s energy system.
AEMO invites submissions on the inputs and assumptions to be used in Forecasting and Planning publications for 2020. AEMO’s timeline for this consultation is outlined below. Submissions should be made to forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au.
Consultation Documentation
This consultation relies on the methodologies, inputs and assumptions described in various AEMO publications. The Consultation Paper provides context regarding the relationship between the supporting materials and the AEMO forecasting approach, across various forecast components.
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25/02/2020
AusNet Services
1.09 MB -
25/02/2020
Australian Nuclear Association
139.55 KB -
25/02/2020
Bright New World
1.01 MB -
25/02/2020
DELWP
181.38 KB -
25/02/2020
Dylan Hem
308.47 KB -
25/02/2020
ElectraNet
231.93 KB -
25/02/2020
Energy Queensland
234.64 KB -
25/02/2020
EnergyAustralia
324.24 KB -
25/02/2020
ENGIE
72.28 KB -
25/02/2020
ERM Power
282.92 KB -
25/02/2020
Electrical Trades Union
193.74 KB -
25/02/2020
Fluence
244.93 KB -
25/02/2020
John Patterson
151.28 KB -
25/02/2020
NuScale Power
97.91 KB -
25/02/2020
Origin
119.85 KB -
25/02/2020
Powerlink
4.58 MB -
25/02/2020
SMR Nuclear
86.4 KB -
25/02/2020
Sunwiz
125.71 KB -
25/02/2020
Tesla
717.94 KB -
25/02/2020
The Maritime Union of Australia
250.35 KB
Supporting materials
Materials primarily affecting consumption and peak demand:
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14/06/2019
2019 Projections for Small Scale Embedded Technologies - Report by CSIRO
1.94 MB -
14/06/2019
Distributed Energy Resources and Electric Vehicle Forecasts - Report by Energeia
2.28 MB -
03/06/2019
2019 AEMO Long term economic scenario forecasts - Deloitte Access Economics
1.23 MB -
31/07/2019
Strategy Policy Research, 2019 Energy Efficiency Forecasts
5.12 MB
Materials primarily supporting supply:
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25/02/2020
CSIRO, GenCost 2019-20 preliminary results webinar: presentation
816.85 KB -
25/02/2020
CSIRO, GenCost 2019-20 preliminary results webinar: questions and answers
174.03 KB -
12/12/2019
2019 Input and Assumptions workbook v1.3
This spreadsheet contains key scenario data used as inputs in AEMO’s market models for 2019 Planning and Forecasting activities. This data reflects a starting point for modelling, which may be refined as the processes evolve.
24.73 MB -
12/12/2019
CSIRO, GenCost 2019-20 draft report
2.07 MB -
27/07/2020
Aurecon, 2019 Cost and Technical Parameter Review report
2.07 MB -
12/12/2019
Aurecon, 2019 Cost and Technical Parameter Review databook
415.42 KB -
12/12/2019
Core Energy, Delivery wholesale gas price outlook 2020-2050 report
3.45 MB -
12/12/2019
Core Energy, Delivery wholesale gas price outlook 2020-2050 databook
1.71 MB -
31/07/2019
Wood Mackenzie, 2019 coal cost projections: Approach to coal cost projections report
1.01 MB -
11/04/2019
Entura Report Pumped Hydro Cost Modelling
1.02 MB
Forecasting methodologies and applicable guidelines:
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21/08/2019
Electricity demand forecasting methodology information paper
This document contains descriptions of AEMO’s various forecasting methods for estimating future energy consumption across consumer segments and regions, as well as estimating Maximum Demand and Minimum Demand for various probability thresholds.
2.12 MB -
16/08/2019
Market modelling methodology report
This document contains descriptions of AEMO’s various methodologies for simulating integrated energy supply developments for the electricity and gas systems.
2.05 MB -
12/07/2019
Reliability forecasting methodology paper
This document explains the key inputs and assumptions AEMO will use to determine whether a reliability gap exists in the context of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO), and the methodology for determining the parameters of any reliability gap.
509.9 KB -
25/06/2018
Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG)
The RSIG sets out how AEMO implements the reliability standard, including the approach and assumptions to electricity demand, generation availability and reliability (including intermittent and energy-limited generation), treatment of extreme weather and network constraints.
559.26 KB -
21/08/2019
Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) methodology
This document explains the key supply inputs and methodologies involved in producing the ESOO outcomes in more detail.
382.62 KB
Consultation timeline
| Deliverable | Indicative Date | Status |
| Consultation paper on key Forecasting inputs in 2020 published | Thursday 12 December 2019 | Completed |
| Joint AEMO / CSIRO Webinar: Draft CSIRO GenCost report | Friday 31 January 2020 | Completed |
| Stakeholder submissions due | Friday 7 February 2020 | Completed |
| Final inputs and assumptions report published | July 2020 |
Should you have any questions about any information contained on this page, or would like to share any evidence or comments that could help us for the 2019-20 Forecasting and Planning publications, please email the team: forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au