The WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) is an annual report published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) that provides gas market participants and other stakeholders with information about the WA gas industry. It presents forecasts of WA domestic gas demand and potential supply over a 10-year period, including an overview of gas infrastructure and emerging issues affecting the WA gas industry.

The WA GSOO aims to include information and assessments relating to medium and long term natural gas supply and demand and natural gas transmission and storage capacity, as defined in subrule 2(2)(b) of the Gas Service Information (GSI) Rules. Its content is further defined in rule 104 of the GSI Rules.

5-yearly review – Western Australian (WA) Gas Statement of Opportunities

Terms of Reference and submission instructions

5-yearly review

The WA GSOO was first published by the Independent Market Operator (IMO) in 2013. In 2015, certain IMO functions transferred to AEMO, including the responsibility for developing and publishing the WA GSOO. AEMO has published the WA GSOO from 2015 onwards. Modifications have been made annually to improve the modelling methodology and forecasting accuracy, to increase engagement with stakeholders, and to address issues of importance to the WA gas industry.

Rule 105 of the GSI Rules requires that AEMO must, at least once in every 5-year period, conduct a review of the GSOO, and that this review must be carried out in consultation with Gas Market Participants and gas industry groups.

The first 5-yearly review is expected to be completed by July 2018, with a report developed and expected to be published on the AEMO website in August 2018.

Scope of the 5-Yearly Review

As part of the 5-yearly review, AEMO will focus on the following key areas, as outlined in subrule 105(3)(a)-(f) of the GSI Rules: 

1. Regions (if any) to be specifically considered in a WA GSOO.
2. Assumptions upon which the WA GSOO is developed.
3. Scenarios to be considered in a WA GSOO.
4. General methodologies to be used in developing a WA GSOO.
5. Types of information to be collected for a WA GSOO.
6. Any other inputs that AEMO considers relevant.

Stakeholder feedback and submissions to the 5-yearly review

AEMO has developed a submission template, seeking responses from stakeholders to address the key areas outlined above. Stakeholders may wish to provide comments on other topics in addition to these key areas.

The template for submissions can be downloaded here.

Submissions should be attached to an email sent to wa.capacity@aemo.com.au with the subject heading “5-yearly GSOO review”.

The due date for submissions is 5 pm, Friday, 23 February 2018.

Each submission will be considered as confidential unless otherwise instructed at the time of submission.

AEMO will only publish results:

• From the topic-specific questions of the submissions – in aggregate. For example, tables of quantitative data will detail the total number of replies in each category for each topic-specific question.
• From the open-ended, qualitative questions (by subrule area) in an anonymous format.  

Following the submission deadline, AEMO will establish a targeted Working Group to assist with addressing the key issues highlighted in the submissions. Broader industry engagement will be carried out through the WA Gas Consultative Forum.

Further Information

If you have any questions in relation to the review or the consultation process, please contact:

Neetika Kapani, Manager – Reserve Capacity, AEMO

Phone: (08) 9469 9936; email: wa.capacity@aemo.com.au 

Please note: Findings from the 5-yearly review process may not be incorporated into the development of the 2018 WA GSOO (due to be published by 31 December 2018), but may be given consideration in future GSOOs.

WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - December 2017

• WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - December 2017 (2.0 MB, pdf)

Supporting Documents

• WA GSOO Data Register - December 2017 (12.7 MB, xlsx)
• Gas Demand Methodology Report by Marsden Jacobs Associates: The Development of Annual and Peak Gas Demand Forecasts for the Western Australian Gas Market   (3.4 MB, pdf)

 The key findings of the 2017 WA GSOO are:

• The WA domestic gas market continues to evolve, with new production facilities and gas suppliers, and greater pipeline and gas storage capacity.
• In the near term, to 2020, the domestic gas market is well-supplied.
  
  • WA has a Domestic Gas Policy that requires WA liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects to make gas available to the WA domestic gas market on a long-term basis by setting aside reserves equivalent to 15% of their LNG production.
• Potential gas supply is expected to exceed forecast demand over the entire outlook period, assuming that new reserves are developed. Some uncertainty exists in the medium term, when reserves for domestic-only gas producers are expected to fall and forecast domestic gas prices remain low. If domestic gas prices remain low, new gas reserves may not be developed and supply may not meet demand in the medium to long term. This may be exacerbated given that exploration has fallen further since 2016. Exploration levels must be considered well in advance of potential supply shortfalls, because it can take up to five years to develop a conventional petroleum field.
• WA domestic gas demand growth remains low. 
  • Continued gas demand growth in WA is dependent on new resources and industrial gas-consuming projects. A mixed outlook persists for WA commodities. 
  • Under a separate modelling scenario that assumed committed and likely large-scale renewable generation projects proceed, total forecast gas demand is lower across the outlook period compared to the Base scenario forecast.

AEMO is responsible for preparing and publishing the WA GSOO under Part 6 of the Gas Services Information Rules. It is published each year by 31 December. The first four editions of the WA GSOO were published by the Independent Market Operator (IMO).

Supporting documents relating to the previous WA GSOOs can be found below.

Previous WA GSOO reports and supporting documents