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  • NEM Electricity Demand Forecasts

  • In this section
    • In this section
      Electricity Forecasting Insights
      • 2018 Electricity Forecasting Insights – March 2018 Update
      • 2017 Electricity Forecasting Insights
      Previous National Electricity Forecasting Report
  • AEMO has produced electricity demand forecasts for the National Electricity Market (NEM) since 2012

    Prior to that, forecasts were provided by the Transmission Network Service Providers for each NEM region and published as part of the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).

    From 2012 to 2016, AEMO published its demand forecasts as the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR). These forecasts can be found on the Previous National Electricity Forecasting Report page.

    In 2017, AEMO published its demand forecasts as the Electricity Forecasting Insights. These forecasts were updated in March 2018.

    For the 2017 ESOO, updated demand forecasts were produced and published as part of that document. In 2018 and 2019 the demand forecasts were similarly published as part of the ESOO.

    Since 2015, demand forecasts have been uploaded to AEMO’s Forecasting Data Portal. Forecasts are provided for operational consumption and maximum demand (and, since 2016, minimum demand). For forecast definitions, see this Operational Consumption definition document (166 KB, pdf).

    The table below lists the most recent electricity demand forecasts and their publication date.

    Publication date  Forecast publication name 
    August 2019 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – demand forecast
    February 2019 2018 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – Update to auxiliary load forecasts (357 KB, pdf)
    August 2018 2018 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – demand forecast
    March 2018
    2018 Electricity Forecasting Insights – March 2018 update
    August 2017
    2017 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – demand forecast
    June 2017
    2017 Electricity Forecasting Insights
    March 2017
    2016 National Electricity Forecasting Report - Update (393 KB, pdf)
    August 2016
    2016 National Electricity Forecasting report - EV Insights (2.37 MB, pdf)
    June 2016
    2016 National Electricity Forecasting report (3.56 MB, pdf)

    In February 2019, AEMO published its Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper (Methodology Paper), which explains the data sources and methodologies used to forecast annual consumption, and maximum and minimum demand in the NEM.

    • Download The Methodology Paper (2.26 MB, pdf)

    Forecast accuracy is assessed for the forecasts used in the Electricity Statement of Opportunities.

    • Visit the Forecasting Accuracy Reporting page for more information.
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