AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The MTPASA result published on 13 December 2016 shows Low Reserve Conditions (LRC) in South Australia for Summer 2016-17, Summer 2017-18, Summer 2018-19, and in Victoria for Summer 2017-18. AEMO will continue to monitor the situation and take appropriate actions, if necessary.
To view the summary of MTPASA results for the next 24 months, visit AEMO's website on http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard and click on the 'Medium Term Outlook' tab.
This notice supersedes Market Notice 56190 published on 06 December 2016.
As part of a broader process of implementing the reliability standard, AEMO runs the Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MTPASA) process weekly to forecast capacity reserve conditions over a two year period. An LRC is declared if capacity reserves are projected to be inadequate on any given day. MTPASA provides a fast and timely assessment of supply adequacy without needing to compute the probability of unserved energy explicitly using a large number of simulations.
AEMO may apply probabilistic studies such as Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP) to confirm the LRC findings of MTPASA before intervening in the market. The EAAP process implements the reliability standard over a two-year timeframe and focuses on impact of potential energy constraints.
Additionally, AEMO publishes an Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) annually which implements the reliability standard over a 10-year timeframe.
For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standards please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on the AEMO website on http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Stakeholder_Consultation/Consultations/Electricity_Consultations/2016/EAAP/Reliability-Standard-Implementation-Guidelines.pdf