The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) published its 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) on 31st August 2010. The ESOO presents the outlook for Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) supply capacity for years 2013-2020 and demand for years 2010-2020. The supply-demand outlook reflects the extent of growth, and opportunities for growth, in generation and demand-side investment.
This year, for the first time, AEMO has separated the 10-year supply-demand outlook into two documents. While the ESOO will cover years 3-10 and focus on investment matters, a separate document titled ‘Power System Adequacy – Two Year Outlook’ will publish the operational issues and supply-demand outlook for summers 2010/11 and 2011/12. AEMO has released the 2010 ESOO and 2010 PSA together.
| 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities - Executive Briefing 31 Aug 2010 | filename: 0410-0050.pdf |
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| 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities - Complete Document 13 Oct 2010 | filename: 0410-0054.pdf |
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| 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities - Separated Chapters 31 Aug 2010 | filename: 0410-0044.zip |
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| 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities Errata – Appendix A 13 Oct 2010 | filename: 0410-0056.pdf |
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| 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities Order Form 25 Aug 2010 | filename: 0410-0042.pdf |
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06 October 2010
Since publishing the 2010 ESOO we have found errors in some of the load forecast tables in Chapter 4 and Appendix A. The errors do not affect the supply demand outcomes or any other information contained in the ESOO. Corrected versions of these sections as well as the whole document are now available for download.
We sincerely apologise for any inconvenience these errors may have caused.
The affected areas are:
- Chapter 4 ‘Energy and Demand Projections’
The projections affected are the aggregated jurisdictional demand forecasts to which AEMO applies diversity factors to provide the NEM-wide maximum demand forecasts. They are not used for any other purpose in the ESOO, and are provided in the document for information only. Specifically:
- page 36 - 4.3.1. the summer 10% POE MD projected increase, and
- page 37 –Table 4.5 ‑ NEM-wide summer maximum demand projections.
- Appendix A ‘Energy and Maximum Demand Projections’
The tables affected contain the forecast demand as used in the ESOO market modelling work. This demand is net of that demand met by non-scheduled generation. These figures were incorrectly listed in the original publication, and have now been corrected to reflect the figures that were actually used in the ESOO market modelling work. Specifically:
- Tables A.1 NEM-wide scheduled and semi-scheduled energy projections - actual (historical) figures,
- Table A.2 NEM-wide scheduled and semi-scheduled summer maximum demand projections - 2009/10 actual and projection figures,
- Table A.3 NEM-side scheduled and semi-scheduled winter maximum demand projections - 2009/10 actual and projection figures,
- Table A.4 Queensland scheduled and semi-scheduled energy projections –actual figures,
- Table A.5 Queensland scheduled and semi-scheduled summer maximum demand projections - 2004/05‑2007/08 actual figures
- Tables A.13 South Australian scheduled and semi-scheduled energy projections – actual figures
- Table A.14 South Australian scheduled and semi-scheduled summer maximum demand projections – actual figures
- Table A.15 South Australian scheduled and semi-scheduled winter maximum demand projections - actual figures.
Update
As per the Clause 3.13.3 (r) of the National Electricity Rules as there has been significant new information been made available to AEMO this information must be published.
This update to the 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities provides further information on demand forecasts, generating capabilities and status, and plant retirements.
This information relates to the situation as at 1 January 2011. More recent information on generator project status and availability is provided on the AEMO website.
| 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities Update 07 Apr 2011 | filename: 0410-0068.pdf |
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See also:
KPMG Reports
| KPMG Stage 1 Report - Key Energy Market Policies 31 Aug 2010 | filename: 0410-0045.pdf |
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| KPMG Stage 2 Report - Economic Scenarios & Forecasts 2009-10 to 2029-30 31 Aug 2010 | filename: 0410-0046.pdf |
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| KPMG Stage 2 Report - Appendix E - Estimation Results 31 Aug 2010 | filename: 0410-0047.pdf |
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| KPMG Stage 3 Report - Semi-scheduled, Non-scheduled and Exempted Generation, by Fuel Source 2009-10 to 2029-30 31 Aug 2010 | filename: 0410-0048.pdf |
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| KPMG Forecast Spreadsheets 31 Aug 2010 | filename: 0410-0049.zip |
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