Victorian Annual Planning Report

2012 Victorian Annual Planning Report 22 Jun 2012 | 2.47 mb (.pdf)

Please view the 2012 VAPR Feedback Survey if you would like to provide feedback.

The Victorian Annual Planning Report (VAPR) supports Victorian energy market investor decision making by providing transmission network planning information for the electricity Declared Shared Network (electricity DSN) and gas Declared Transmission System (gas DTS) over a three to ten-year outlook period.  

The VAPR includes information about the performance of the electricity DSN and gas DTS for the previous year, including the performance at the time of maximum demand, and information about demand and supply. It lists the augmentations that are committed in the short term, and describes the latest medium-term outlook for emerging network limitations and their potential solutions.

Key information from the 2012 VAPR:

The electricity DSN and gas DTS met their respective maximum demand requirements during 2011–12, both with some potential to supply additional demand. This reflects 2011–12 summer weather (electricity) and winter weather (gas) that were milder than in recent years, and milder than the planning standards used.

• Despite slowing growth in the energy delivered by the electricity DSN, there are pockets of high growth, reflecting large-scale new residential development areas in metropolitan Melbourne. There are also new generation connections.

• Based on the 2011 VAPR results, AEMO began Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT-T) applications during 2011–12 to address future electricity transmission limitations due to growth pockets and new generation. The 2012 VAPR identifies two further future metropolitan Melbourne electricity transmission limitations that may lead to RIT-T applications in 2012–13. The RIT-Ts currently underway will be updated with the 2012 electricity demand forecasts to reflect current views of future demand growth.

• The VAPR addresses generation retirement, replacement and development using modelling results from the 2011 National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP), as information about the Australian Government’s Contract for Closure Program outcomes was not available when the 2012 VAPR was being prepared.

• No electricity transmission limitations were identified for a scenario that includes 400 MW of brown coal generation retirement in the Latrobe Valley in 2016–17, 800 MW of new generation in the South-West Corridor (including 500 MW of wind generation), 400 MW of wind generation in Regional Victoria, and 500 MW of gas powered generation (GPG) in the Latrobe Valley.

• Longer-term studies show that, in addition to existing capacity at the start of 2012, 2,500 MW of new generation can be accommodated in the South-West Corridor (comprising 500 MW and retirements of 400 MW from the medium-term studies, and an additional 2,400 MW) and 2,500 MW in the Latrobe Valley (comprising 800 MW from the medium-term studies and an additional 1,700 MW), without causing electricity transmission system-normal thermal limitations.

• Gas transmission committed augmentations include a new compressor station at Euroa and the Truganina to Plumpton pipeline (Western Outer Ring Main (WORM) stage 1).

• Localised gas powered generation (GPG) development scenarios showed future gas transmission constraints, requiring additional compression and pipeline extension or duplication, relating to the Longford to Melbourne Pipeline and South West Pipeline.

2012 Victorian Annual Planning Report 22 Jun 2012 | 2.47 mb (.pdf)

Please view the 2012 VAPR Feedback Survey if you would like to provide feedback.