Five Minute Electricity Demand Forecasting
The 5-minute dispatch forecast is an estimate of what the demand is expected to be in 5 minutes time. Mathematical models have been developed to establish benchmarking measures of forecast accuracy, and to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed forecasting techniques.
A number of mathematical techniques were applied from the NSW and VIC regions data set, out of which the
- MAPE - mean absolute percentage error,
- VAR - variance and
- CI - confidence intervals based on error distributions in 99.5, 97.5, etc.
were recommended as measures of the forecasting algorithms in line with AEMO objectives.
The document describes the methodology adopted to derive the model and the benchmark results achieved with a view to incremental improvement of the forecaster model in the future following a period of monitoring.
For enquiries regarding this document, please contact: AEMO's Information Centre.
| Five minute electricity demand forecasting : Neural Network Model Documentation 23 Jul 2010 | filename: filename: 0140-0039.pdf |
 |
