7 Day Outlook

The 7 Day Outlook table summarises the demand, supply and reserve at the time of forecast daily peak demand for each NEM region over the next seven days.

This information is extracted from the latest STPASA public report - http://www.nemweb.com.au/REPORTS/CURRENT/Short_Term_PASA_Reports/

7 Day Supply and Demand Outlook

Forecast Supply and Demand at Peak for NEM Regions (figures in MW)

Region Date 05-Feb-12 06-Feb-12 07-Feb-12 08-Feb-12 09-Feb-12 10-Feb-12 11-Feb-12
NSW Demand 9345 10569 9616 9457 9394 9478 8638
Supply 12281 13664 13924 13754 13711 13769 13394
Reserve 3828 3737 4689 4680 4699 4655 5525
Time 17:30 14:00 10:00 10:00 11:00 10:30 09:30
QLD Demand 6948 8097 8032 7637 7272 7231 6713
Supply 10495 10669 11397 11347 11285 11273 11288
Reserve 2912 2249 2666 3006 3309 3249 3893
Time 19:30 17:00 16:30 14:00 14:00 14:00 19:30
SA Demand 1479 1445 1556 1569 1493 1340 1282
Supply 2118 2442 2428 2646 2650 2732 2507
Reserve 1481 1685 1382 1610 1660 1739 1618
Time 00:30 17:30 16:30 14:00 17:00 17:00 00:30
TAS Demand 1083 1081 1101 1186 1194 1154 1084
Supply 1844 2159 2100 2224 2132 2239 2237
Reserve 1142 1558 1477 1516 1416 1563 1633
Time 09:30 17:00 07:30 07:30 07:30 07:30 09:30
VIC Demand 6546 6243 6280 6285 6461 6250 5201
Supply 9471 9707 9729 9713 9744 9697 9284
Reserve 4474 4974 4972 4684 4561 5039 5523
Time 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 11:00 17:30

 Download table data

Explanation of terms

The following explains the source of the items on the above table.  Note that all these items are forecast results from the STPASA Outage LRC run, and are relevant to the peak demand period of each day.

Demand:
The most likely peak demand for the region based on weather adjusted forecasts by AEMO with a 50% probability of exceedance, to be met by scheduled generation (either locally or via interconnector imports).

Supply:
Total generating capacity that is available within the selected region, based on the Maximum Availability of all scheduled generation within that region (as advised by the relevant Generators), subjected to any network constraints and/or daily energy limitations on that generation. This figure includes net export to other regions and excludes net import from other regions via interconnectors.

Reserve:

  • Reserve: The supply available to a region in excess of the scheduled demand including supply from other regions through interconnectors.

Time:
The time of the forecast daily peak demand in Eastern Standard Time.

Table items in terms of MMS Data Model:

Table Item

In terms of MMS Data Model…


Supply


=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.ConstrainedCapacity +
     STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Unconstrained Capacity


Demand


=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Demand50


Reserve


=   Supply + Net Import – Demand

=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.SurplusCapacity

=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.ConstrainedCapacity +
     STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Unconstrained Capacity -    
     STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. LORNetInterchangeUnderScarcity –
     STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. Demand50

 

Time


=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. Interval_DateTime