VIC Medium Term Outlook

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The MT PASA results do not provide complete modelling when some plant has long term energy restrictions typical of drought conditions. Additional modelling of energy restrictions has been undertaken due to the drought and the results in terms of likely capacity factors of NEM plant is contained in the report - Potential Drought Impact on Electricity Supplies in the NEM.

Explanation of Graph Items

The following explains the source of the items on the above graph.  Note that all these items are forecast results from the MTPASA Reliability LRC run, and are relevant to the peak demand period of each day.

For further information on the MTPASA process please click here >>

Generation:
Total generating capacity that is available within the selected region, based on the aggregate PASA Availability of all scheduled generation within that region (as advised by the relevant Generators), subjected to any network constraints and/or weekly energy limitations on that generation.  This figure includes net export to other regions and excludes net import from other regions via interconnectors.

Demand:
Demand within the selected region forecast by AEMO with a 10% probability of exceedance, to be met by scheduled generation (either locally or via interconnector imports).

DSP (Demand Side Participation):
Total amount of committed demand reduction within the selected region in response to periods of high demand and high spot prices.  DSP is forecast by AEMO based on annual surveys of Network Service Providers, Retailers and other Customers.

Net Import: (not shown on graph)
Net interconnector flow into the selected region from adjacent regions required to minimise the reserve shortfall in that region.

Reserve Shortfall:
Amount that (Generation + DSP + Net Import) available to the selected region falls below the (Demand + Reserve) requirement for that region.  Reserve shortfalls are represented by red vertical bars on the graph.

[Interconnector] Flow:
Flow on the relevant interconnector.