• Stakeholder consultation
  • About AEMO
  • Careers and Training
  • Media Centre
  • Contact us
  • Market Notices
    • Stakeholder consultation
    • About AEMO
    • Careers and Training
    • Media Centre
    • Contact us
    • Market Notices
  • Australian Energy Market Operator

    Australian Energy Market Operator Australian Energy Market Operator
    • Electricity
      • AEMO operates Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM), the interconnected power system in Australia’s eastern and south-eastern seaboard, and the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) and power system in Western Australia.
      • National Electricity Market
        • Data dashboard
        • Data
        • Five Minute Settlement
        • Participant information
        • Network connections
        • Security and reliability
        • Emergency management
        • Settlements and payments
        • Planning and forecasting
        • Power of Choice
        • Retail and metering
        • Events and reports
      • Wholesale Electricity Market (WA)
        • Data dashboard
        • Data
        • Compliance and audit
        • Participant information
        • Security and reliability
        • Settlements and prudential monitoring
        • Planning and forecasting
        • Reserve capacity mechanism
        • Dispatch and market notices
        • Procedures
        • Archive Section
      • IT Systems
        • NEM
        • IT change and release management
        • aseXML Standards
    • Gas
      • AEMO operates gas retail markets in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Western Australia. AEMO also operates wholesale gas markets in south-eastern Australia, those being the Declared Wholesale Gas Market in Victoria (DWGM), the Short Term Trading Market in Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney (STTM), and the Gas Supply Hub (GSH), whose trading locations are based at Wallumbilla in Queensland, and Moomba in South Australia. AEMO also operates the Natural Gas Services Bulletin Board (GBB), and is system operator of the Victorian Gas Declared Transmission System. AEMO is also responsible for Gas Services Information functions in Western Australia.
      • Declared Wholesale Gas Market
        • Data dashboard
        • Data
        • Market operations
        • Participant Information
        • Victorian gas operations
        • Settlements and payments
        • Policies and procedures
        • Market audit reports
        • Market notices
      • Short Term Trading Market
        • Data dashboard
        • Data
        • Participant information
        • Market operations
        • Settlements and payments
        • Policies and procedures
        • Market audit reports
        • Market notices
      • Gas Supply Hubs
        • Data dashboard
        • Data
        • Participant information
        • Market operations
        • Settlements and payments
      • National planning and forecasting
        • National Gas Forecasting Report
        • 2017 Gas Statement of Opportunities
        • Victorian Gas Planning Report
        • WA Gas Statement of Opportunities
      • Gas Retail Markets
        • Data
        • Participant information
        • Market procedures
        • Market audit reports
      • Pipeline Capacity Trading
      • WA Gas Services Information
        • GSI participant information
        • GSI procedures
        • GSI Compliance and Audit
      • Emergency management
        • National role
        • Victorian role
      • Natural Gas Services Bulletin Board
      • Western Australia Gas Bulletin Board
      • IT systems
        • IT change and release management
        • User Guide to MIBB Reports
        • aseXML Standards
    • Media Centre
    • Strategic, efficient investment required to support Australia’s energy transformation
  • Share this page
  • Strategic, efficient investment required to support Australia’s energy transformation

  • Recent News
    • Recent News
      • Initial operation of the Hornsdale Power Reserve Battery Energy Storage System
      • Generator Registration and Connection in the NEM – A Roadshow
      • Advice to the Commonwealth relating to AGL’s proposal to replace Liddell
      • AEMO observations: operational and market challenges to reliability and security in the NEM
      • AEMO publishes Quarter Energy Dynamics – Q4 2017
      • AEMO publishes Power system requirements paper
  • August 11, 2016 - 6:00 AM

    The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2016 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report released today illustrates the growing importance of network and non-network developments to securely manage an evolving, lower carbon electricity generation future.

    MEDIA RELEASE

    Thursday, 11 August 2016

    The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2016 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report released today illustrates the growing importance of network and non-network developments to securely manage an evolving, lower carbon electricity generation future.

    The 2016 ESOO provides National Electricity Market (NEM) participants, investors, and policy-makers with a projected 10-year outlook to 2025-26 of supply adequacy under a number of scenarios, and this year further generation withdrawals have been modelled in response to the COP21 emission abatement commitment1.

    “As the NEM generation mix continues to keep pace with new technology and policy changes, future supply adequacy will depend on the availability and capability of new supply options providing electricity services when needed,” said AEMO Chief Operating Officer Mike Cleary.

    From the information provided by industry, and assuming no additional generation withdrawals to occur between now and 2025-26, the only projected supply shortfall in the 2016 ESOO occurs towards the end of the outlook period in New South Wales.

    “The 2015 ESOO identified New South Wales (NSW), South Australia and Victoria as potentially being at risk of breaching the reliability standard at various points over the next decade. The latest information suggesting only a shortfall in NSW in 2025-26 takes into account a reduction in demand forecasts, and illustrates a market response with some planned plant withdrawals deferred and an additional 537 MW of wind generation capacity announced,” said Mr Cleary.

    However, additional to the information already announced by market participants, AEMO has modelled scenarios that assume the COP21 commitment is achieved, investigating the impact of potential, but not announced, generation withdrawals to meet the electricity sector target agreed by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Energy Council.

    “AEMO has modelled the impact of withdrawing a further 1,360 MW of coal-fired generation capacity to meet the COP21 commitment under AEMO’s neutral scenario, with results suggesting potential reliability breaches occurring in South Australia from 2019-20, and New South Wales and Victoria from 2025 onwards.

    “These breaches would most likely occur when demand is high (usually between 3-8pm), coinciding with low wind and rooftop photovoltaic (PV) generation, and low levels of electricity supply imported from neighbouring regions.

    “In this scenario, the majority of coal-fired generation withdrawals are assumed to come from Victoria, which would reduce that State’s generation output to support South Australia and New South Wales via the interconnected network,” said Mr Cleary.

    The 2016 ESOO report outlines the importance of maintaining power system security during this period of rapid transformation, and with the potential withdrawal of coal-fired generation across the NEM, a number of support services will need to be provided by other resources.

    “The secure operation of the NEM’s 40,000 km transmission network - which transports generated electricity to demand points - is reliant on support services that manage the rate of change of frequency and system restart services.

    “AEMO is signalling potential future supply gaps in providing these important stability services, gaps which could be met through prospective new forms of electricity generation, or alternative technologies.”

    “To maintain a secure electricity supply demand balance during peak demand periods, AEMO is working closely with industry to identify both network and non-network developments. Possible solutions could include an increased interconnection across NEM regions, battery storage, and demand side management services,” said Mr Cleary.

    AEMO’s 2016 ESOO follows the recent release of the 2016 National Electricity Forecasting Report, which looks at forecast electricity demand trends over a 20-year horizon. The ESOO analyses these demand trends against future generation availability to identify any potential breaches of the NEM reliability standard, which requires that no more than 0.002% of annual operational electricity consumption should go unserved for any region in any year.

    AEMO will be hosting a roadshow for industry participants to critically examine and discuss options to maintain the high security and reliability standards that most Australians have become accustomed.

    (1) Following the 2015 Paris 21st Conference of Parties, Australia has set a target to reduce carbon emissions by 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030, building on the 2020 target of reducing emissions by 5% below 2000 levels.

    2016 ESOO scenario reference table

    2016 ESOO scenario reference table

    2016 ESOO Infographic Image

    For more information:
    AEMO Media
    Mobile: 0409 382 121
    Email: media@aemo.com.au

    Click here to download the media release

    Click here to download the infographic

    Click here to access the 2016 National Electricity Market Electricity Statement of Opportunities

      • Featured News
      • News
      • ESOO
      • Report
      • Electricity Market
      • Major Reports and Publications
      • NEM
    • Electricity
    • Gas
    • Stakeholder consultation
    • About AEMO
    • National Electricity Market
    • Wholesale Electricity Market (WA)
    • IT Systems
    • Declared Wholesale Gas Market
    • Short Term Trading Market
    • Gas Supply Hubs
    • Natural Gas Services Bulletin Board
    • Western Australia Gas Bulletin Board
    • WA Gas Services Information
    • Gas Retail Markets
    • Emergency management
    • IT systems
    • Industry forums and working groups
    • Consultations
    • Data and information plan
    • Our Vision, Mission, and Values
    • Board and governance
    • Our Executive Leadership Team
    • About the industry
    • AEMO History
    • Glossary of terms
      • Careers and Training
      • Media Centre
      • Contact us
      • © 2018 AEMO
      • Privacy and Legal Notices
      • Site by Adelphi Digital
      • Return to top