Manufacturing sector consumption
- Over the medium to long term (to 2036–37), manufacturing consumption is projected to remain flat, with an average annual increase of 0.1% over the remaining forecast period to 2036–37 across all NEM regions. The projected increase in consumption is attributed to expected growth in gross state product (GSP).
- Projected stability and growth in domestic manufacturing is expected to translate into consumption growth. Export-oriented manufacturing has been reducing consumption due to a challenging economic environment. While export-oriented manufacturing is expected to recover in the longer term, electricity consumption is not forecast to return to historic levels, as innovation and availability of smarter technology is forecast to lead to more energy-efficient operation.
- Under the Weak scenario, consumption is projected to decline by 3.7% average annual decrease from 2022–23 to 2036–37. Under the Strong scenario, consumption is forecast to grow over the medium to long term for all regions (0.8% average annual increase from 2022–23 to 2036–37), with projected growth in GSP the key driver for the forecast consumption increase.
New South Wales
Manufacturing consumption forecasts mirror the NEM trend. The forecasts are for a short-term average annual decrease of 0.4%, followed by a 0.1% average annual increase in the remaining forecast period.
The forecast short-term reduction is influenced by the announced reduction in Boyne Island electricity consumption. In the medium term, Boyne Island is assumed to return to previous consumption levels. In the medium to long term, Queensland has the strongest forecast growth in consumption of all regions, with an average annual growth of 0.8%.
In the initial year of the forecast period (to 2017–18), consumption is forecast to drop in South Australia, due to businesses continuing to seek options to control their energy use and costs, and announced exits following the close of the automotive vehicle manufacturing industry. However, over the following four years, consumption is forecast to increase by 582 GWh, driven by projected growth in GSP, resulting in a forecast average annual increase of 4.4% over the five years. Over the medium to long term, consumption is projected to grow at an average annual increase of 0.4%.
The outlook is expected to be initially driven by increasing consumption, due to large loads being expected to ramp up to full production as they continue to recover from the 2015–16 Basslink outage. Beyond 2021–22, consumption is projected to grow at an average annual increase of 0.4%.
Consumption is forecast to increase by 795 GWh from 2016–17 to 2018–19, as the Portland smelter is expected to ramp up its second potline, and the Wonthaggi desalination plant is expected to ramp up at a higher rate to meet its April 2016 water order following maintenance issues in January 2017.