AEMO has introduced a state-of-the-art system that will replace AEMO’s manual demand forecasting process.
In addition to the requirement of improving the regional demand forecast, one of the key drivers for introducing the new system was the requirement to provide the market with more demand forecasts at a sub-regional level. This will allow improved forecasting of constraints which in turn would improve the accuracy of forecasting of spot price and reserves. Without an automated forecasting system, the cost of extending the existing manual system would significantly increase.
The new Demand Forecasting System (DFS) automatically generates half-hourly short-term forecasts for the five regions spanning the AEMO operating footprint as well as sub-regions that have significant impact on constraints. To support pre-dispatch and short term reserve adequacy operations, the forecasts are updated automatically every half-hour using prevailing load and projected weather conditions.
The automated process will improve the accuracy of the forecasts especially in terms of speed of updating following changes in weather forecasts and cost effectively produce the forecasts for a large number of sub-regions.
The DFS uses a bottom-up approach that separates the treatment of key large industrial loads from aggregate domestic loads. As a result, the DFS forecasts respond quickly to unplanned industrial load loss, as well as projected changes in prevailing weather conditions.
Through seamless integration with the AEMO wind generation forecasting systems, the demand forecasts reflect the impact of wind generation.
The demand forecasts are based on a set of statistical models that were specifically designed for the AEMO’s load conditions.
Distinct statistical models were developed for each key industrial load and for domestic loads.
The DFS solution leverages Itron’s MetrixIDR™1 platform the details of which can be found on Itron’s website:
https://www.itron.com/na/productsAndServices/Pages/MetrixIDR%20System%20Operations.aspx?market=electricity
The DFS went live on 15th November 2011 and the regional demand forecasts are now being fed into pre-dispatch and short-term reserve calculations. The sub-regional forecasts being produced by DFS will be fed into constraints by the end of this year.
For any questions please contact AEMO at helpdesk@aemo.com.au