The Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) was established in response to the growth in intermittent generation in the NEM and the increasing impact this growth was having on NEM forecasting processes.
The system aims to provide better forecasts that will drive improved efficiency of overall NEM dispatch, pricing, and permit better network stability and security management.
The implementation project had two broad objectives:
- facilitating the operation of the market through more accurate wind generation forecasts; and
- facilitating research to improve the quality and dimension of the forecast over time to accommodate other renewable types such as solar.
AEMO hosts the system and maintains its interface to the existing market systems to give data access to the market and to individual wind farms. Data access may also be given to researchers who have signed a sub-licensing agreement and appropriate confidentiality arrangements.
AWEFS produces forecasts from the following inputs:
real time SCADA measurements from the wind farms
numerical weather predictions from weather forecasters from around the world
standing data from the wind farms
availability of information provided by the wind farms, that includes turbines under maintenance and upper MW limit on the wind farm.
The system will produce wind generation forecasts for all NEM wind farms (>= 30MW) for all NEM forecasting timeframes as follows:
Dispatch (5 minutes ahead)
5 Minute Pre dispatch (5 min resolution, one hour ahead)
Pre-dispatch (30 minute resolution, up to 40 hours ahead)
ST PASA (30 minute resolution, 7 days ahead)
MT PASA (daily resolution, 2 years ahead)
A document providing a high-level overview of the Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) design, detailing the inputs, outputs and their usage is provided below. The document also provides information about the linkage between wind generator Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA), Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) and NEM Dispatch Engine (NEMDE), and how NEMDE generates dispatch instructions (dispatch level and semi-dispatch cap) for semi-scheduled generators using AWEFS forecasts.