The Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) project was established in response to the growth in intermittent generation in the NEM and the increasing impact this growth is having on NEM forecasting process. The project has been financed through the Commonwealth Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (DRET) to develop a wind energy forecasting system and capability. This project provides a vehicle for improving the research, development and application for forecasting of intermittent energy.
The project aims to provide better forecasts that will drive improved efficiency of overall NEM dispatch, pricing, and permit better network stability and security management.
The project has two broad objectives:
- facilitating the operation of the market through more accurate wind generation forecasts; and
- facilitating research to improve the quality and dimension of the forecast over time to accommodate other renewable types such as solar.
The successful supplier for the project is the ANEMOS Consortium, a European consortium made up of 6 partners, coordinated by Armines (France) and Overspeed (Germany) who were contracted to develop the Wind Energy Forecasting system, which they refer to as Anemos@Oz, to NEMMCO.
Anemos@Oz combines two broad approaches to get an improved forecast:
- The Statistical approach draws out information from detailed historical data – both power and wind measurements, and numerical weather predictions.
- The Physical approach applies the physical laws of the generating plant – such as terrain information, geographical coordinates etc.
Anemos@Oz provides an accurate forecast of wind generation, which is an increasingly significant and highly variable component of total generation in some regions of the NEM. Better forecasts will drive improved efficiency of overall NEM dispatch, pricing, and promote better network stability and security management.
NEMMCO established a reference group, Wind Energy Technical Reference Group (WETRG), to adviSe on technical project delivery matters.
Phase 1 of AWEFS was implemented internally for NEMMCO on 22 September 2008 and released for the NEM in November 2008 as part of the MMS Release. Phase 2 of AWEFS is currently scheduled for implementation in 2 releases in November 2009 and May 2010.
Major milestones are:
- Phase 1 (Base System)
- Design: May – Dec 07
- Testing: May – June 08
- Installation: July – Aug 08
- NEMMCO Training: Aug 08
- Internal Go Live: Sept 08
- Participant Training: Oct 08
- MMS Go Live: Nov 08
- Researcher Training: Apr 09
- Phase 2 (Enhancements)
- Scoping: Aug – Sept 08
- Installation Release 1: Dec 09
- Installation Release 2: Jun 10
AEMO hosts the Anemos@Oz system and maintains its interface to the existing market systems to give data access to the market and to individual wind farms. Data access may also be given to researchers who have signed a sub-licensing agreement and appropriate confidentiality arrangements.
Anemos@Oz produces forecasts from the following inputs:
- real time SCADA measurements from the wind farms
- numerical weather predictions from weather forecasters from around the world
- standing data from the wind farms
- availability information provided by the wind farms, that includes turbines under maintenance and upper MW limit on the wind farm.
The system will produce wind generation forecasts for all NEM wind farms (>= 30MW) for all NEM forecasting timeframes as follows:
- Dispatch (5 minutes ahead)
- 5 Minute Pre dispatch (5 min resolution, one hour ahead)
- Pre-dispatch (30 minute resolution, up to 40 hours ahead)
- ST PASA (30 minute resolution, 7 days ahead)
- MT PASA (daily resolution, 2 years ahead)
Wind Energy Technical Reference Group (WETRG)
NEMMCO convened an AWEFS focussed Wind Energy Technical Reference Group (WETRG) to provide an industry reference point to assist NEMMCO with the review of specific issues related to the implementation of the AWEFS initiative. WETRG constitutes members from NEM participants (including ERAA and NGF), TNSPs, DNSPs, Wind Farm Developers and Operators, Jurisdictions (including ESIPC, VenCorp), Clean Energy Council, public Researchers, Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (DRET), and NEMMCO. The current WETRG member list is noted below along with the WETRG Terms of Reference.
|Babcock & Brown
|Clean Energy Council
||Sustainable Energy Development Office, WA
||UNSW, Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets (CEEM)
||Western Power, WA