AEMO introduced the Demand Forecasting System (DFS) on 15th November 2011:
DFS feeds the regional demand forecasts into pre-dispatch. In order to monitor the accuracy of the Demand Forecasting Process, AEMO monitors the 12-hour-ahead mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for all the Pre-Dispatch regions. Please refer to ‘Pre-Dispatch Demand Forecasting Performance’ files.
Explanation of the file terms:
- Current Month 12-hour-ahead MAPE: This is the mean absolute percentage error, calculated using the 12-hour-ahead forecast, for the last calendar month, with a resolution of half-an-hour. For example, if the current date is 15th May 2012, then this term will be April 2012 MAPE (MAPE calculated from 1st April 2012 to 30th April 2012).
- Current Financial Year to Date Average MAPE: This average MAPE is calculated from the first month of the current financial year, up to the last calendar month of the current financial year. For example, if the current date is 15th May 2012, then this term will the average MAPE from July 2011, up to April 2012 MAPE.
For any questions regarding DFS please contact AEMO at email@example.com.