13 April 2015
NO SHORT-TERM GAS SUPPLY GAPS EXPECTED
The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2015 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) forecasts no supply gaps for any of Australia’s eastern and south-eastern gas markets over the short-term to 2019.
Lower than forecast consumption levels, most notably in the industrial sector within Queensland and New South Wales, combined with upgrades to gas market infrastructure, have alleviated short-term supply gaps that were initially forecast by AEMO in its previous GSOO update in mid-2014.
The 2015 GSOO reports on the adequacy of eastern and south-eastern Australian gas markets to supply maximum demand and annual consumption, as forecast in the 2014 National Gas Forecasting Report (NGFR) published in December.
AEMO Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Mr Matt Zema, said the shift in supply forecasts illustrates the dynamic, ever-changing natural gas landscape, most notably following the initiation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
"Australia’s eastern and south-eastern gas markets are experiencing rapid transformational change. The 2015 GSOO points to a 17%* forecast decline in New South Wales’ gas consumption in 2019 and identifies crucial upgrades to gas market infrastructure, such as the commissioning of the Newcastle LNG storage facility," said Mr Zema.
"A fall in the forecast demand, increased capacity of the Victoria–New South Wales interconnector, and upgrades to the Moomba–Sydney and Moomba–Adelaide pipelines, all reduce the potential for supply gaps in the short term," said Mr Zema.
The only forecast medium and long-term supply gaps are in Queensland, consisting predominately of gas powered generation (GPG) supply.
"The forecast medium and long-term supply gaps equate to 214 PJ, down from the 1000 PJ anticipated in the 2013 GSOO, largely due to lower gas consumption forecasts following a reduction in the industrial consumption across eastern and south-eastern gas markets," said Mr Zema.
The 2015 GSOO also confirms that the Victorian Declared Transmission System (DTS) can supply the maximum forecast 1-in-20-year gas demand of 1,257 TJ per day from 2015–2019.
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*The 17% reduction is due to the decline in residential, commercial and industrial demand in NSW as reported in the National Gas Forecasting Report (NGFR) of December 2014.