QUEENSLAND LNG PROJECTS DRIVE NEM’S HIGHEST DEMAND
Three large liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects ramping up in 2014-15 in Queensland are the single biggest driver of electricity consumption in the state over the next three years.
The 2014 National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR), published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), shows a 4.1% average annual increase in Queensland’s overall NEM electricity consumption in the short term to 2016-17, reflecting a 16.4% average annual increase in large industrial consumption.
"Queensland, with LNG projects ramping up gradually from the next financial year, is the only NEM region with a sizeable forecast rise in consumption," said AEMO Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Matt Zema.
"Queensland residential and commercial consumption is forecast to decline by an annual average of 2.0% over the next three years; this compares to an average annual decline of 2.9% over the last five years due to sustained retail electricity price increases."
In the short-term, Queensland’s decreased residential and commercial consumption is largely driven by retail electricity prices, and continued strong growth in rooftop photovoltaic (PV) installations.
"Queensland has the highest forecast growth in rooftop PV installations, which drives down consumption from the grid," said Mr Zema.
In the short term, rooftop PV output is forecast to grow by an annual average of 27.6% in Queensland as system costs continue to fall while government financial incentives remain static.
Year-on-year increases in energy efficiency savings, attributed to increasing appliance efficiency, and building and industry regulations mainly driven by Federal Government initiatives, are also forecast over the period to 2023-24.
In the short-term, Queensland’s one-in-10-year summer maximum demand forecast grows at a marginally lower rate than annual energy. Longer-term, the impact of rooftop PV leads to peakier maximum demands shifting to later in the day.
Queensland is forecast to return to its highest historical maximum demand level in 2015-16; New South Wales is the only other NEM region to reach historical levels before the end of the outlook period in 2023-24.
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AEMO operates the National Electricity Market (NEM) and power system, supporting 19 million people across Australia’s eastern and south-eastern seaboard. AEMO operates the Victorian Declared Wholesale Gas Market as well as the Victorian gas transmission system. It also manages the wholesale gas Short Term Trading Market (STTM) hubs in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland.