MONDAY 16 JUNE 2013
MANUFACTURING DECLINE DRIVES DOWN POWER DEMAND
A decline in state-based manufacturing activity together with Victorians’ continuing appetite for solar power drive a reduction in overall electricity consumption over the next three years.
The 2014 National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) shows an overall 2.1% average annual reduction in Victoria’s electricity consumption to 2016-17. This reflects a 13.8% average annual decrease in large industrial consumption due to a decline in energy-intensive industry.
It has been announced that the Point Henry aluminium smelter, which represents 6.8% of total Victorian consumption in 2013-14, will close in August 2014.
"The closure of the Point Henry smelter, as well as vehicle manufacturing plants, is a major factor in Victoria’s declining electricity consumption," said AEMO Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Matt Zema.
"However, despite the second highest growth in rooftop photovoltaic (PV) installations in the National Electricity Market (NEM), which drives down overall consumption from the grid, Victoria bucks the trend in residential and commercial electricity consumption with a 0.5% average annual increase to 2016-17.
"Without the generally positive population growth and economic outlook for Victoria as well as moderating electricity prices, we’d see a greater reduction in residential and commercial consumption," Mr Zema said.
In the short term, rooftop PV output is forecast to grow by an annual average of 26% in Victoria as PV system costs continue to fall while government financial incentives for rooftop PV generation remain at 8 cents per kilowatt-hour.
Longer-term, year-on-year increases in energy efficiency savings, attributed to increasingly efficient appliances, and building and industry regulations mainly driven by Federal Government initiatives, are also forecast over the outlook period to 2023-24.
In the short-term, Victoria’s one-in-10-year summer maximum demand forecast is declining at an average annual rate of 1.1%, due to the decrease in large industrial forecasts, higher rooftop PV generation, and increased energy efficiency savings.
Over the longer term, Victoria’s rooftop PV output causes maximum demand to shift its timing to later in the day.
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AEMO operates the National Electricity Market (NEM) and power system, supporting 19 million people across Australia’s eastern and south-eastern seaboard. AEMO operates the Victorian Declared Wholesale Gas Market as well as the Victorian gas transmission system. It also manages the wholesale gas Short Term Trading Market (STTM) hubs in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland.