Forecasting & Planning

AEMO has numerous planning roles across the electricity and gas markets.

In Victoria, AEMO is responsible for planning and procuring new transmission capacity and for connecting generators and customers to the electricity transmission network. AEMO prepares independent demand forecasts and justifies expenditure on new transmission infrastructure using an economic cost-benefit framework that strikes a balance between network costs, reliability and market operating benefits.

AEMO does not own any assets but procures long-term services under contract.
In South Australia, AEMO produces electricity demand forecasts and provides specific advice to the South Australian Government.

In 2012 AEMO will produce independent, open and transparent electricity forecasts for all of the NEM for the first time. AEMO already produces independent gas forecasts for eastern Australia.
In the NEM, AEMO oversees the strategic development of the national electricity grid. In gas, AEMO delivers strategic gas and electricity planning advice and forecasting to guide long-term investment in network infrastructure and resource management. This includes modelling possible future scenarios, advising how markets might develop under those scenarios, and leading the development of markets to meet forecast energy requirements.

In Victoria AEMO complements its gas role with assessments of the need for network augmentations.

AEMO’s planning information is delivered via the current suite of documents:  

Report Key Outcomes

National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP)

  • A strategic plan and comprehensive information source for the NEM transmission network.
  • Explores a range of scenarios to determine potential future electricity transmission impacts.

Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO)

  • Provides information about demand forecasts, generation capacities, and NEM supply adequacy for the following 10 years. 
  • Supported by the annual Power System Adequacy report

Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO)

  • Examines the interconnected Australian gas transmission network, consolidating demand and reserve forecasts and opportunities.
  • Explores a range of scenarios to determine potential future impacts on gas reserves, processing and storage, transmission pipelines and customer demand.

South Australian Supply and Demand Outlook (SASDO)

  • Presents information on the current and future state of the South Australian electricity market, including demand forecasts, supply capability and fuel supply as well as analyses of historical trends and wind generation behaviour.

Victorian Annual Planning Report (VAPR)

  • Forecasts for energy demand and supply in Victoria that identifies future development needs for both the electricity declared shared network (electricity DSN) and the gas DTS.

Power System Adequacy (PSA)

  • An assessment of the electricity supply outlook over the next two years, complementing the ESOO’s 10-year outlook.

Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP)

  • Provides vital information on the impact of drought in eastern and south-eastern Australia on generation capacity in the National Electricity Market (NEM).